Oct 09 2018Add to Favorites
With the combined influences of a cooling residential property market and heightened bank scrutiny on all aspects of real estate lending, traditional debt sources are, in many cases, closed to developers and commercial real estate investors, particularly where circumstances require a specific funding solution.
·Sales rates for new developments have fallen significantly and are now unlikely to achieve pre-sales required to cover development cost;
·Programmes should be incorporating additional time to ensure sufficient facility headroom to accommodate delays in achieving sales;
·Similarly, due consideration should be applied to downside sensitivities on realisations to ensure appropriate coverage;
·Valuations for both sites and finished product are retreating which has the potential to erode equity and push up funding ratios;
·The risk of interest rate rises is increasing as the cost of wholesale funding for the banks starts to climb in line with international interest rates.
The impact of these conditions on the liquidity and value of real estate means that investors are now effectively sharing a higher proportion of the development risk than they have had to in the past and this has a flow-on effect to the pricing for the funds they are prepared to provide.
Understanding these conditions is imperative to measuring and pricing the risk of an investment to ensure returns are commensurate with the risk taken.
MP Funds Management is confident in the macro themes of Australian real estate, which we believe have sound fundamentals and pockets of value based on;
Required population growth, driven by our diminishing tax-payer base and top-heavy aging population. NSW forecasts anticipate growth from 7.7m to 11m by 2036.
Supply-demand fundamentals; a) 10 million residential dwellings to accommodate 25 million people, growing at c. half-a-million a year and; b) A planning system that is prohibitive of housing new supply.
A Federal budget and payment of an $18.2b deficit that is entirely reliant on the collection of personal taxes. With forecasts of the $18.2b deficit reaching $11b surplus by 2020 and no wages growth, this tax collection is predicated on inflows of working, tax-paying immigrants.
Infrastructure spend of $85billion over the next four years for NSW and $45billion for QLD to accommodate growth.
MP Funds Management has been working with a number of institutional and private investors to provide structured funding solutions for transactions where traditional banking channels may not be available. MP Funds Management targets specific pockets along the Eastern Seaboard where we believe the underlying property fundamentals remain sound and have strong growth potential.
MP Funds Management update 1st Oct 2019 and investment pipeline: MP Funds Management has completed its co-investment into the acquisition of a 52,000sqm office asset in Brisbane CBD, right opposite the railway and with 98% of rental income underpinned by government tenants.
MP Funds Management has provided investment funding for approximately $1.3b in unlisted real estate since 2013 and has provided an investment return of approximately 21% annually. Whilst MP Funds Management focuses on unlisted real estate, I am always fascinated by innovation and I personally will sometimes invest in other areas. Recently I caught up with the founder of a very clever new Australian – based app called Stake https://stake.com.auwhich is a Business-to-Consumer based platform that enables Aussies to get direct exposure to the USA equities market.
United States of America
In November 2014 we co-invested with another Manager into the acquisition of a 13-level North Sydney CBD office tower for a purchase price of $36.75m or $4,665 per sqm. A total of $19.5m equity was invested with a gearing ratio of 65%, debt was locked in at a rate of c.4% for the intended five-year investment period.
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